North Korea shelled a small South Korean fishing village in the Yellow Sea for 50 minutes on Tuesday resulting in four deaths and at least 19 civilians wounded, damages from the barrage are still being assessed but are estimated to be in the millions.
State media claimed the attack was provoked by military exercises conducted in the area.
The Washington Post reported that South Korea returned artillery fire in response to the attack, fueling concerns of a continued escalation in the violence. Meanwhile, South Korean civilians living on the islands boarding the North were encouraged to evacuate to the mainland in anticipation of further hostility.
If you, like millions of Americans, missed this story on the national network news it was probably because it was tucked neatly between holiday traveler concern over enhanced TSA pat-downs the "Don't touch my junk'' crises, and the details of impending nuptials of young British royalty. Americans seem to be viewing the unprovoked killing of innocent South Koreans as an isolated incident not connected to any larger more frightening regional policy. A policy not by crazy like-a-fox North Korea, but by their rich and powerful benefactors to the north - China.
To understand the chess piece like moves of North Korea and China in context of a regional power struggle you have to understand the context of the region and its importance to the United States. Few Americans could put their finger on the Yellow Sea, let alone identify the pivotal countries that surround it. But it is impossible to understand the moves without knowing what the board looks like.
The Korea's (North and South) sit between the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan. To the north and west is the behemoth emerging world power China. This year China overtook Japan as the second largest economy in the world.
To the east Japan rests as a declining economic power with a dangerously aging population. According to November's Economist magazine, the Japanese median age is 44, and by 2050 40 percent of Japanese will be over 65 and the total population will have declined by 38 million.
In the south, and running into the East China Sea are the disputed Senkaku Islands (claimed by both China and Japan), the island of Okinawa where the U.S. has a controversial strategic military base, and finally we come to Taiwan.
Taiwan, technically Chinese territory, is allowed to function semi-autonomously from the mainland and is a constant source of diplomatic and military posturing between the U.S. and China. China wants more direct control over their island and its important manufacturing and financial markets - currently Taiwan runs a $13.2 billion trade surplus and has experienced a 5.9 increase in market value in the last year. The U.S. plans to maintain the status quo by selling Taiwan advanced military weapons to discourage an anticipated Chinese invasion.
The next aspect of the game to understand is how history plays a role in the actions unfolding. Both Korea and China hold angry grudges over Japan for war crimes committed prior to and during WW II. This concept may seem odd to Americans who have a hard time remembering last week, but to the ancient proud civilizations of the region this history is living and ever present.
In more recent history there is the economic and territorial expansion of China supported by the overt aggression of their crazy neighbor President Kim Jong-Il of North Korea. China's expansion can be seen in the region by its threats against Taiwan, a growing military budget, and claims to Japan's southern islands.
In September, the Japanese Coast Guard arrested the crew of a Chinese trawler fishing in Japanese waters around the Senkaku Islands. In retaliation, China withheld shipments of rare earth, materials Japan needs to produce its high-tech exports. China told Japan they could ensure future supplies of rare earth by relocating their factories to mainland China - something Japanese companies are doing with increasing frequency, and given their aging population, a trend likely to increase.
Meanwhile China's use of North Korean aggression is less nuanced and more of a blunt force instrument. North Korea continues to build and test a rogue nuclear program and launch cruise missile test flights over Japan - just to make sure there was no doubt to their threat. Earlier this year North Korea sunk a South Korean warship in open waters, and now North Korea fires artillery at a fishing village on Yeonpyeong Island.
What we are experiencing on the Korean peninsula is not a cautionary tale of declining American influence in the region - it is an epilogue to American world dominance. While we were chasing a handful of terrorists around Afghanistan and starting a purposeless war with Iraq incurring trillions of dollars in debt, the Chinese, with the help of North Korea, were keeping their eye on the prize - emerging Asian markets and power. When we look at the region as a whole and connect the dots of recent North Korean and Chinese actions it is clear we have been checkmated.
Are we willing to go to war in Korea over the sinking of a ship? What about the bombing of an island? North Korea is already the most sanctioned nation in the world, if we can't stop them from exploding a nuclear bomb how are we going to stop their conventional threats against their neighbors? Are we going to risk a trade or shooting war with China over islands in the Yellow and East China Seas when China is our largest debt holder and controls most of the world's rare earth - materials needed to run our high-tech society and military?
Imagine you are the President of the United States sometime in the not too distant future. Tensions have risen over recent arms sales to Taiwan of advanced anti-ship missiles. When the arms sales were announced, China suspended shipments of rare earth choking the high-tech industries of Japan and the United States. As a Chinese invasion force leaves the mainland for the shores of Taiwan, North Korea moves troops into the DMZ while its navy threatens islands of South Korea and Japan, and U.S. satellites indicate North Korean missiles are preparing to launch. You think Kim Jong-Il might just be crazy enough to start a war...look at the other crazy things he has done, he shelled an island just for fun. The threat is credible enough to make you pause.
“It is decision time Mr. President,” your National Security Adviser prods. Do you risk nuclear war with North Korea to keep China out of Taiwan? North Korea has nothing to lose, do you trade Tokyo and Seoul for Pyongyang just to keep Taiwan semi- autonomous? What price will you pay for geriatric Japan?
Don't think too hard Mr. President, it is already too late - CHECKMATE. Game to the People's Republic and their crazy neighbor.
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